Edito du MondeUn monde multipolaire
The international financial crisis has suddenly accelerated a tendency that has been manifest since the United States' first setbacks in Iraq: American hegemony, and, one should say, Western hegemony, which seemed to settle over the world after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Communist system at the end of the 1980s-beginning of the 1990s, has seen its heyday.
Already since the beginning of the 21st century, Western claims to impose a Western conception of human rights and to promote democracy as the best guarantor of security and prosperity have been challenged. The so-called emerging states, notably in Asia, preach another kind of modernization. The poor countries commonly called "third world countries" during the Cold War, denounced the unkept promises of development aid. As it benefited from the economic globalization it sought to insert itself into, China, joined by Vladimir Putin's Russia, challenged Western pretensions to fixing the rules of the game.
The United Nations General Assembly, before which Nicolas Sarkozy spoke Tuesday, September 23, emphasized the birth of this multipolar world. It's what French diplomacy has advocated for decades. However, contrary to what was imagined, multipolarity is not presenting itself as an orderly construction based on several power centers maintaining well-codified relations among themselves.
The multipolar world that is brewing is, quite the contrary, disorganized, almost anarchic. No organizing principle seems to preside over its constitution. Russia may well attempt to find new allies in Latin America, China and Africa against the United States; their interests diverge when Russia changes borders in the Caucasus by force. Both have reasons to rejoice over the decline of the American ex-"hyperpower," but, in fact, their dependence on the global economy makes them as much victims as beneficiaries of the international financial crisis.
Everyone, or almost everyone, demands new rules. Nonetheless, before new equilibria emerge from the present disorder, it would be wise to expect some dangerous squalls.
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The Return to a Multipolar Economy
Wednesday 24 September 2008
by: ATS, La Liberté
The present redistribution of global economic power may permit a reduction in an American withdrawal's impact on the rest of the world. The size of the cake grows and its distribution changes with a return of the multipolar economy, Credit Suisse emphasizes in its analysis intended for investors. Ten years ago, the consequences of the American financial crisis would have had a profound impact on Latin American development. Now, however, that region has been demonstrating a strong capacity for resistance since mid-2007, observes Javier Santiso, Chief Economist for the OECD's Center for Development in Paris. The region is not immunized, but it is better covered against American cyclical fluctuations since Asia established itself alongside the United States and Europe as a major engine for growth.
This phenomenon comes from the reduction in cyclical dependence on the Western world. The latter dominated the international economy during the 20th century, but sees its weight counterbalanced now by that of the so-called emerging countries. Many countries with high population and abundant natural resources have long been subjected to a blockage of their potential. But the former "periphery" is finding an ever more central position, according to Credit Suisse's experts.
In these economies, infrastructure needs are growing and domestic demand is becoming energized: two strategic leads for other countries' companies in quest of growth opportunities. On the one hand, a middle class is emerging with means that exceed essential needs, hence more consumer spending. But people at the base of the income pyramid, even with little, also represent strong purchasing power by virtue of their number.
Thus do emerging populations (China, Brazil, Russia, India) take over from US consumers to become the determinant factors of growth. And they will maintain that role for a while. Switzerland also benefits from this development, since growth in exports has never been more connected to emerging economies than it is today.
Translation: Truthout French language editor Leslie Thatcher.
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